Market Notes — October 11, 2026

Market notes · 2026-10-11

Snapshot of live Polymarket markets as of October 11, 2026. Numbers move — this page is a dated record, not a live feed.

2026 US Midterms

47 top races tracked on Polymarket, combined volume above $14M
Texas Senate: Talarico 63% vs Paxton 38% (market volume ~$3M)
Midterms remain the platform’s largest event category heading into November

International

Brazil runoff: Bolsonaro Jr 89% vs Lula 11% ($179M market volume — one of the platform’s largest non-US markets this quarter)
Israel PM market: $45M volume

Other

Ballon d’Or 2026: $47M volume

Context

Perps expansion (September 3, 2026: 20x, 67 markets) continues to pull speculative flow from event markets into leverage products. We track whether event-market liquidity concentrates further into the top races.

Disclaimer

Not financial advice. Educational purposes only. Updated October 2026.